A year ago, Tory MPs feared a fresh leadership revolt against Kemi Badenoch as Tories hit historic 14-16% support; November, after 12 months, was hushed: decisive challenge month. Yet, despite poor polls, “Keminisation” saw her impose style and authority.
More in Common’s Luke Tryl, director, said Badenoch holds the party up; losing her means electoral oblivion. Though many still call the party toxic and incompetent, polls and focus groups show some now listen; support has moved from teens to low 20s, sometimes overtaking Reform UK for the first time in almost two years.
Tryl called this weak but improved, blaming brand. Her approval is net neutral, after earlier net one/two, once minus 30s; only she and Burnham have positive approval. Progressives dislike her, but likely Tory voters like her, dislike the party, value candour and wish she stood elsewhere. He judged the “Kemi bounce” real; people cite improved PMQs clips.
Opinium’s James Crouch said approval rose from -27 in May 2025 to -3; 2024 Tory voters: 64% approve, 8% disapprove; 2019 Tory voters: 56% approve, 16% disapprove. YouGov found four in 10 used a negative term for her, perceived unpleasantness; three in 10 used positive terms, mainly strong, intelligent.
Tory MPs credit her improvement to learning and advice after FT claim this weekend she recalled no mistakes, though all err. Insiders say she heeded economy-over-culture-war warnings, reflected in “Stronger economy, stronger country”; PMQs improved with senior Tory help, including Cameron.
Jenrick and Braverman’s Reform defections were a turning point, removing right-wing destabilisation and letting Badenoch show decisiveness pressing Jenrick before leaving. Growing doubts over Farage and Reform UK finances helped as Reform’s poll lead slipped.
Burnham’s Labour rise altered the field. Giles Kenningham, ex-Conservative communications head now at Trafalgar Strategy, said Burnham raises the bar and communicates comfortably. Starmer was no electrifying orator; Burnham’s strong conference and budget attention mean Badenoch’s conference must target economy and welfare. Healey’s empty speech gave her chance to pressure Labour and drive the agenda.
ConservativeHome’s latest poll shows 87% net satisfaction among party faithful. Yet aides and insiders see her future unsettled if Tories cannot sustainedly outpoll Reform. One cited Tory selection races, barring high-profile ex-MPs from standing, as challenge concern. A strategist said she, like many politicians, dislikes tall poppies. Another said she is not immune from challenge: political shelf lives shorten, leaders are exposed, jobs are precarious, and no obvious rivals exist.
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