"Europe's demographic crisis: compare countries with visual breakdown"

Rising Anti-Immigration Sentiment in Europe Could Worsen Population Decline

Growing opposition to immigration is gaining momentum across Europe. France’s National Rally and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) hold notable positions in their national governments, while the UK’s Reform party leads in recent polls.

However, projections indicate that the increasing influence of far-right movements may accelerate Europe’s population decline, leading to economic challenges such as slower growth and rising costs for pensions and care for the elderly.

Those advocating for stricter border controls must confront a key demographic reality: the continent’s native population is expected to decrease significantly over the next century due to low birth rates.

Without immigration, experts warn that European societies will age at a faster pace, exacerbating economic pressures as workforces diminish and caregiving demands increase.

“Most mainstream political leaders acknowledge immigration as necessary to mitigate demographic strains,” said John Springford, an expert at the Centre for European Reform. “Efforts have focused on tighter—and often harsh—asylum policies, aiming to justify higher levels of regular immigration through stricter border measures.”

“But far-right groups increasingly oppose this consensus. Nations that resist pressure to reduce working-age immigration will likely see stronger economic outcomes in the long term,” he added.

According to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, the bloc’s population is projected to decline by 6% by 2100—falling from 447 million to 419 million under current trends.

The drop would be far steeper without immigration. Excluding migration, Eurostat predicts a reduction of over a third, to 295 million by 2100.

Eurostat’s baseline projections assume consistent net migration levels based on the past two decades. However, CuriosityNews analyzed alternative figures from the agency that omit this assumption.

Similarly, the UK’s Office for National Statistics includes a zero net migration scenario in its population forecasts.

Countries like Italy, France, and Germany—where anti-immigration politicians have gained ground—would experience severe population declines if immigration ceased entirely.

Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, has prioritized restricting migration, yet the country already has one of Europe’s lowest birth rates. Without immigration, its population could shrink by more than half by 2100.

In Germany, where the AfD performed strongly in recent elections, closing borders entirely could reduce the population from 83 million to 53 million within 80 years.

Meanwhile, France, where the National Rally made gains in legislative elections after advocating for stricter immigration controls, would also face significant demographic challenges without migrants.