Far-right AfD expected to achieve major victory in pivotal German state election

German voters cast their ballots on Sunday in a significant regional election in which the far-right, anti-immigration and Moscow-aligned Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) was projected to win.

AfD, polling above 40% for months in Saxony-Anhalt, was aiming to secure its first-ever state government, though the outcome remained uncertain.

Polls opened at 8am, with 1.7 million voters eligible to vote until 6pm. Initial projections were expected shortly after closing.

The eastern German state has been governed by the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in coalition with two smaller parties. State Premier Sven Schulze hoped to rebuild a multiparty coalition to retain power.

All other major parties have maintained a policy of non-cooperation with the AfD, whose Saxony-Anhalt branch is classified as "right-wing extremist" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency.

The AfD's top candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, a 35-year-old figure with a large social media following, confidently predicted gaining an absolute majority.

"It was the others who erected the firewalls," he told Bild. "If no one wants to work with us, then we'll just have to do it alone."

A scenario like this would unsettle Germany, which has so far prevented extremist parties from gaining power.

A strong AfD win would also increase pressure on Merz, who has pledged to revive a stagnant economy and restrict irregular immigration, but whose party has trailed the AfD in national surveys.

"If the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, Merz's critics will become even more vocal, and calls for better leadership will become impossible to ignore," said political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of the University of Kassel.

Siegmund has pledged to lead a political transformation from the state of 2.1 million people and propel the AfD to national victory in 2029.

The AfD's key campaign pledges include a "remigration and deportation offensive", a ban on LGBTQ rainbow flags at public schools, and an end to new windfarms.

The party has also drawn on nostalgia for communist East Germany and lingering resentment about a persistent wealth gap with the west, decades after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.

The prospect of an AfD state government has triggered concern among mainstream parties and minority groups.

Thousands of opponents of the AfD gathered at a "festival of democracy" rally in Magdeburg on the eve of the vote.

The German Economic Institute stated that the AfD's immigration policy would be "ruinous" for the state, where the population is already ageing, shrinking and heavily dependent on foreign-born workers.

Others have expressed fears that an AfD-led state security apparatus could pass sensitive information to Russia.

The Kremlin "makes no secret of the fact that the AfD is the most important instrument for destabilising Germany for Putin", Thuringia state interior minister Georg Maier told the Handelsblatt.

The latest poll, released on Thursday by public broadcaster ZDF, gave the AfD 41% of the vote.

The CDU was projected to receive 23%, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) 8.5%, and the Greens 6%, while two smaller parties failed to clear the 5% threshold to re-enter parliament.

A similar outcome could allow the CDU and other parties to form a minority government with ad hoc support from the far-left Die Linke, which polled at 11.5%.