France’s prime minister, François Bayrou, is likely to be removed in a no-confidence vote on Monday afternoon, pushing the eurozone’s second-largest economy into political turmoil.
Parties across the spectrum, from the left to the far right, have announced their intention to vote against the 74-year-old centrist, ensuring his minority government will collapse after just nine months in office.
The centrist president, Emmanuel Macron, may then have to select his third prime minister within a year and the fifth since starting his second term in 2022.
Under France’s system, the president, who holds authority over foreign and security matters, appoints a prime minister to manage domestic affairs. However, after Macron dissolved parliament unexpectedly last year, the national assembly split into three factions—left, center, and far right—without a clear majority. This has led to political gridlock and disputes over the budget, making it uncertain whether a new prime minister could avoid a similar quick dismissal.
Macron has the option to call another snap election, though he has expressed hesitation about doing so.
Bayrou startled even his centrist supporters by demanding a surprise confidence vote, claiming his austerity measures to cut public debt required parliamentary approval.
A longtime ally of Macron, Bayrou faced resistance to his controversial €44 billion budget reduction plan, which included eliminating two public holidays and freezing many welfare expenditures. The proposal drew opposition from all political sides.
On Monday afternoon, Bayrou will address parliament, seeking support and sharing his assessment of France’s economic situation and debt levels. Leaders of each parliamentary group will then speak before lawmakers cast their votes.
Marine Le Pen, whose far-right National Rally party plans to oppose Bayrou, stated on Sunday: “This crisis was instigated and prolonged by President Emmanuel Macron and his supporters. Because of them, France is now the weak link in Europe.”
Le Pen, convicted in March of misusing EU parliamentary funds through a fraudulent employment scheme and barred from holding office for five years, will learn on Monday the date of her appeal hearing next year.
Left-wing lawmakers, who won the most seats in last year’s election but fell short of a majority, have insisted Macron must name a leftist prime minister.
If removed, Bayrou would be the second prime minister to lose his position following the snap election—the right-wing Michel Barnier was ousted after just three months in December.
“[Macron] cannot ignore the election results for a third time,” said Green party leader Marine Tondelier in an interview with broadcaster BFM on Saturday, asserting that a left-wing successor is the logical choice.
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