Iran's regional allies refrain from full-scale conflict with the US and Israel

Iran‑backed militias across the Middle East are persisting in attacks on Israel, the United States and their partners in response to the US‑Israeli campaign against Tehran, yet they have so far avoided a full‑scale clash, analysts and regional officials say.

This measured approach indicates that Tehran may view these groups as a strategic reserve to be mobilised if the twelve‑day war escalates, although it could also signal that Iranian command structures are beginning to falter.

Hezbollah, the Lebanon‑based Islamist movement closely aligned with Iran, entered the fight early, carrying out missile and drone strikes on Israel after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

On Tuesday, Shia militias in Iraq struck a US diplomatic compound in Baghdad, adding to a series of similar assaults, and they have previously launched long‑range attacks on Israeli and US installations in Jordan.

To date, the Yemen‑based Houthis—also members of Iran’s former “axis of resistance” coalition—have not resumed hostilities with the United States nor joined Tehran’s retaliatory actions against Israel, Gulf states or maritime traffic, although they warned last week that their “fingers are on the trigger”.

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, a vital conduit for global oil, the Red Sea lanes have grown even more critical. No Red Sea attacks have been recorded since the Iran conflict began, but threats remain, the Joint Maritime Information Center, a naval advisory service, reported on Sunday.

Observers note that the imminent transit of a US aircraft‑carrier group through the narrow Bab el‑Mandeb at the Red Sea’s eastern end will be a decisive moment for gauging the heavily armed movement’s intentions.

“That will be a very important test … The Houthis possess mines, drones, artillery and a full spectrum of missiles. The axis of resistance will not get a better opportunity to set a US carrier ablaze,” said Michael Knights, a regional expert.

The Houthis have long received substantial financial, military and other assistance from Tehran and hailed Monday’s appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader as “a new victory for the Islamic Revolution”.

Nevertheless, experts caution that, despite retaining a stockpile of powerful long‑range missiles, the Houthis may choose not to become actively involved in the present war and are unlikely to act solely on Tehran’s orders.

“It is hard to forecast, but I doubt they will target Red Sea shipping merely out of solidarity with Iran … They are weighing internal factors,” said Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council.

“Joining the Iran conflict is a possible scenario, but it would not bring the same domestic or international advantages to the Houthis as other options might.”