Italy and England sit level on points in the Six Nations standings, with two rounds left. England have already taken on Wales.
There is a great deal at stake in Saturday’s clash in Rome, particularly for those watching the lower end of the table – a zone that England know all too well. The side entered the tournament ranked third worldwide, a hair behind the All Blacks in second place, and were justified in feeling confident after an 11‑match Test winning streak. That run was broken by Wales, and the situation has since soured.
Now England risk repeating the patterns of 2018, 2021 and 2023, when they finished fifth, fifth and fourth respectively. Should they fall to Italy on Saturday afternoon, and the Italians, buoyed by their second win of the campaign, stumble in Cardiff on the final weekend, England could finish bottom of the Six Nations for the first time – a stark reversal.
Italy, however, should be entertaining loftier goals. Their best ever placement is fourth (achieved in 2007 and 2013), and the results of the opening three rounds suggest they may be capable of a top‑half finish, rather than the five points they currently hold.
Only two nations have never been beaten by Italy, and England are one of them. Pondering whether the Azzurri might finally triumph in this encounter feels akin to the age‑old question of whether they can justify the patience and resources the tournament has invested in them and break out of a pattern of finishing fifth (six times) or last (18 times out of 26).
Despite a quarter‑century of occasional optimism – often voiced in these pages – Italy have never been far from a drubbing at the hands of a side that truly masters the game. The build‑up to 2007 exemplified this, with players such as Sergio Parisse, Martin Castrogiovanni, Marco Bortolami and the Bergamasco brothers in the spotlight, only to suffer a 70‑point loss in Marseille to the All Blacks (the other team they have never beaten) on the opening weekend of that World Cup.
Even at the most recent World Cup, defeats of 90 points to the All Blacks and 60 points to France stood out as some of the most disheartening scorelines in recent memory. Italy have long been the proverbial “hard team to beat” when they are on form against weaker opponents, yet their susceptibility to elite sides playing at their best remains unresolved.
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