India’s Diplomatic Strains with the U.S. Under Trump’s Pressure
When Donald Trump secured his second term, India’s leadership likely viewed it with quiet satisfaction. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s highly public efforts to cultivate a rapport with Trump, both during and after his presidency, suggested a strong connection between the two prominent right-wing figures.
As Trump reshaped global trade and politics through aggressive tariff measures, India engaged early in trade discussions with the U.S. Aware of its firm positions on agricultural and dairy sectors, New Delhi anticipated tough negotiations. Still, it remained hopeful of securing terms reflecting India’s economic significance and strategic role as a counterbalance to China.
However, in April, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India, exceeding rates applied to most U.S. allies. That levy has since surged to 50%, a punitive move targeting India’s purchase, refining, and export of Russian oil during the Ukraine conflict. The new rate will likely render most Indian exports to the U.S. uncompetitive.
Modi’s much-emphasized bond with Trump now appears misguided. Beyond tariffs, India’s limited conflict with Pakistan following the Pahalgam terrorist attack saw Trump and Vice President JD Vance frame the two nations as disorderly neighbors requiring U.S. mediation. Trump’s claim that his threats over the phone compelled both sides to cease hostilities placed India on par with Pakistan—an equivalence New Delhi found deeply offensive. Some speculate the 50% tariff was retaliation for India’s refusal to credit Trump with brokering peace, undermining his Nobel Peace Prize aspirations.
Trump framed the tariff hike as deliberate retribution, dismissing India’s economy as stagnant while his trade adviser accused the country of exploiting the Ukraine war by purchasing discounted Russian oil. Trump even labeled the conflict “Modi’s war.”
This diplomatic unraveling has undermined Modi’s long-standing efforts to position himself as a globally connected leader. His highly visible embraces and camaraderie with foreign counterparts now seem ill-judged. Still, it would be simplistic to attribute the downturn in bilateral ties solely to personalities.
Nations like India operate within enduring geopolitical frameworks. While the term "non-alignment"—associated with India’s Cold War stance—has fallen out of favor under Modi due to its Nehruvian roots, his foreign policy retains its core principle: preserving India’s independence in a multipolar world. Today, this approach may be termed "strategic autonomy," but the objective remains unchanged. Until recently, India’s ability to import Russian oil, refine it, and export it to Europe with Washington’s tacit approval exemplified this balancing act.
Now, that flexibility faces new challenges.
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