"Putin prioritizes Ukraine war over Trump relationship, calling it existential"

Vladimir Putin seems unshaken by Donald Trump’s first clear move against Moscow—a sign experts and insiders suggest reflects the Russian leader’s expectation that relations would worsen after initially improving at the start of Trump’s second term.

While Moscow sees the strained ties with Trump as unfortunate—following the US president’s abrupt shift in tone last week with pledges to arm Ukraine and warnings of sweeping sanctions—sources indicate Putin’s focus has always been the war. He remains convinced that Russian forces are advancing and that Ukraine’s efforts may soon falter.

“Moscow is disappointed that relations with Trump didn’t improve,” said a former senior Kremlin official. “But no matter what hopes Putin had for a positive rapport with Trump, his broader ambitions in Ukraine were always the priority. For Putin, this conflict is existential,” the anonymous source added.

The Russian president, who spent months praising Trump, has stayed silent on the recent threats, as have top Kremlin officials, avoiding direct criticism. Privately, however, reactions have ranged from frustration to resignation.

“There was some optimism in Moscow about building a strong partnership with Trump,” noted Tatiana Stanovaya, an independent Russian analyst. “But the general expectation here was always stricter US sanctions and continuous military support for Ukraine,” she added.

When Trump returned to the White House earlier this year, quickly renewing efforts to improve ties with Moscow and reiterating his pledge to swiftly end the Ukraine war, it briefly seemed like an opportunity for Putin. A tense Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy only reinforced the impression that US policy might be changing.

For the Kremlin, Trump’s presidency initially suggested a possible geopolitical shift—an opening to weaken NATO cohesion and cast doubt on Western support for Ukraine.

But the goodwill appeared to collapse last week when Trump criticized Putin publicly for rejecting a ceasefire. He then announced new military aid for Ukraine, including Patriot missile systems, and warned of severe sanctions against Russia and its allies unless a peace agreement was reached within 50 days.

Trump expressed particular frustration that his personal overtures to Putin—including six phone calls—had failed, an apparent blow to a leader known for his pride.

“I’d come home and say, ‘First lady, I had a great call with Vladimir. I think we’re set,’” Trump recounted. “Then I’d turn on the TV, or she’d say, ‘That’s odd—they just attacked a nursing home.’”