Record floods that have caused death and devastation in Brazil’s coffee‑growing heartland are projected to worsen if fossil‑fuel consumption continues, a new analysis indicates.
In Minas Gerais, dozens of people have been buried by landslides or swept away as roads turned into streams over the past month. Thousands more have had to leave their homes, and the longer‑term fallout is expected to include higher coffee prices worldwide.
Juiz de Fora suffered the brunt of the disaster, recording its wettest February on file with more than 750 mm of rain – three times the normal amount for the month and 65 % above the previous record of 456 mm set in 1988, according to the World Weather Attribution study.
The international research team identified inequality and insufficient urban planning as key factors behind the fatalities, noting that poor residents living on steep, deforested and poorly drained slopes were especially vulnerable. Juiz de Fora ranks among the ten most hazardous Brazilian cities for the share of its population in such risk zones.
Experts described the downpour’s intensity as a once‑in‑several‑hundred‑years event. While they could not pinpoint a definitive human‑climate signal for this particular storm, they projected that downpours in the region could become 7 % more intense if global warming reaches 2.6 °C above pre‑industrial levels, compared with the current rise of about 1.3 °C.
The paper’s authors urged a rapid phase‑out of greenhouse‑gas emissions from oil, gas and coal. “We must act to keep extreme months like the one Juiz de Fora experienced from becoming routine. The data show rising risk – urgent measures are now required,” said Friederike Otto, a climate‑science professor at Imperial College London.
“It is essential to prevent even a fraction of a degree of additional warming. Each year of delay increases the likelihood of more severe weather that threatens lives and livelihoods.”
The scientists also called on officials to construct shelters, enhance early‑warning systems and improve urban planning, especially for low‑income neighborhoods most at risk. “The magnitude of this tragedy underscores how exposed hillside communities are as the planet warms. Brazil’s leaders must ensure people are not forced to live in danger as such events become more common,” noted Regina R Rodrigues, a professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina.
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