Scotland
Although the Scottish National Party looks set to win a fifth term after Thursday’s Holyrood election, the exact makeup of the parliament remains hard to predict. Reform UK, which has grown strongly in Scotland over the past year and a half, is fighting for second place with Scottish Labour. Labour’s support has slipped amid public frustration with the UK Labour government, even though its leader, Anas Sarwar, urged Keir Starmer to step aside in February. With many voters still undecided and turnout expected to be low, numerous constituency seats are too close to call, and the SNP cannot be certain of an outright majority. If it falls short, the party may seek backing from the Scottish Greens, who anticipate a strong result aided by a “Polanski bounce” – though the Green Party of England and Wales is a separate organisation – to secure a pro‑independence bloc at Holyrood. SNP leader John Swinney has promised to hold a vote on obtaining the powers for a second independence referendum on the first day of the new parliament, despite the UK government’s repeated rejections and the lack of an alternative route.
Wales
This week the Senedd will expand from 60 to 96 members under a new, more proportional voting system. Labour is poised to lose control of the Welsh parliament for the first time since devolution began in 1999, with Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth expected to become the next first minister, putting Welsh independence firmly on the agenda. Even if Reform wins the most seats, coalition calculations make it unlikely to form a government. Should the arithmetic allow, Plaid Cymru could govern as a minority without formal pacts with Labour or the Greens. Labour’s projected losses are so severe that some polls place the party fourth, behind the Greens. Several surveys suggest that current first minister Eluned Morgan may lose her own seat. The Senedd’s new list system creates razor‑thin margins; as little as 0.06 % of the vote could decide the final seat in each constituency, according to pollsters More in Common.
North‑East England
Sunderland stands out as the prize Labour is most likely to lose to Reform. The city has been under continuous Labour control since the council was created in 1974 and is a chief target for Reform, which Nigel Farage believes it can win comfortably after seizing neighbouring Durham County Council last year. Reform will also mount a strong challenge in South Tyneside and Gateshead. Labour could lose Hartlepool – an early result that may dominate Friday’s coverage – and there remains an outside chance that Reform will make further gains across the region.
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