In recent NFL seasons, a familiar pattern has emerged by Week 8. The MVP discussion typically centers around Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson—assuming the Ravens are performing well.
From 2015 to 2019, the league saw four first-time MVP winners: Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mahomes, and Jackson. However, in the past five years, only Allen has broken through as a new winner, with Rodgers, Mahomes, and Jackson taking the other honors.
Allen is favored to win again this season, which would make it five out of the last six years where a previous MVP has claimed the award. Yet, voter fatigue often leads to a desire for fresh names. This year’s pool of potential first-time contenders is deeper and more intriguing than usual. While they might not win in 2023, here are some players who could challenge the Mahomes-Allen-Jackson dominance in the coming seasons.
A quick note: the rankings below reflect the likelihood of these players securing the award in the near future, not necessarily this year. We’ve also excluded consistent candidates like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott to highlight less obvious choices.
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
Darnold’s rise is no longer a laughing matter—he has become one of the league’s top quarterbacks. Skeptics in Minnesota attributed his success to the system and his supporting cast. That argument doesn’t hold in Seattle.
The Seahawks’ ground game remains inconsistent, and their offensive line, while better, isn’t among the NFL’s elite. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a standout receiver this season, but much of his success is tied to Darnold’s sharp decision-making and precision.
At 28, Darnold is younger than Burrow, who entered the league two years later. Seattle has reshaped its offense around his downfield passing ability, and he’s thriving in a role reminiscent of Stafford’s best years. Gone are the days when he crumbled under pressure or forced turnovers—Darnold now extends plays even when protection breaks down.
By nearly any statistical measure, Darnold ranks near the top. He leads the league in RBSDM, a metric that evaluates a quarterback’s responsibility for his offense’s success. The leader in that category often finishes as an MVP finalist.
Five weeks into the season, Darnold has confirmed that his performance in Minnesota wasn’t a one-off. He’s a legitimately improved player, giving Seattle a clear upgrade over Geno Smith. If he guides the Seahawks to a division title, his redemption story could vault him into the MVP conversation alongside Allen and Mahomes.
MVP likelihood: 7/10. This year could be his best shot.
Read next
Stephen Bunting calls death threats and social media abuse ‘very hurtful’ as he addresses Luke Littler’s rise
Definitely," Stephen Bunting says, reflecting on whether the relentless effort required as a darts player on social media feels like a deal with the devil. Following Luke Littler, the prodigious teenage world champion, Bunting is darts' most heavily marketed figure. Yet over the past year, his success on
Bernie Ecclestone questioned after shotgun discovered on his private jet in Portugal
Bernie Ecclestone was detained in Portugal on Monday after customs authorities found an undocumented shotgun in his possession at Tires Aerodrome in Cascais. The incident was confirmed by CuriosityNews, which independently verified the matter with authorities.
The 95-year-old former Formula One chief’s private jet had just landed
49ers preseason: fake wide receivers and undercover stings make it the wildest ever?
The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers have arrived in Australia for this week's NFL season opener in Melbourne. While the flight duration from California to Victoria is approximately 16 hours for both squads, their paths to the season's beginning have been starkly contrasting.
The