A prolonged stretch of elevated oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East could “crimp” the AI surge, warned the chief economist of the World Trade Organization.
The war and its effect on energy and fertilizer costs is identified as the principal risk to the world economy in the WTO’s newest Global Trade Outlook.
The Geneva‑based organization also flagged uncertainty about the ongoing vigor of AI investment, which in 2025 helped offset the blow to global trade from the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.
“There is an intriguing possible link between the Middle East conflict and the AI surge, partly because the surge consumes a lot of energy,” said WTO chief economist Robert Staiger. “If energy prices stay high throughout the year, that could curb the AI surge.”
He added: “Because that investment is heavily concentrated in a handful of large firms, and the technology remains largely unproven in terms of its deliverable benefits, there is some uncertainty about the direction of the future.”
Highlighting the sector’s weight, the WTO estimated that in the first three quarters of last year, roughly 70 % of all investment growth in North America stemmed from AI‑related products. By contrast, in the three years preceding the 2008 US housing collapse, property accounted for 30 % of investment growth.
Despite Trump’s protectionist stance, which lifted US tariffs on many items to their highest levels in decades, world trade in goods grew a solid 4.6 % in 2025, the WTO reported – aided by strong export performance from Asian economies.
Even without a sustained energy shock, the WTO expects the growth rate of global goods trade to fall sharply this year, to about 1.9 %.
It also warned that a year‑long spell of high energy prices would shave an extra 0.5 % off goods‑trade growth and threaten food security.
“Risks to the forecast are skewed to the downside and are largely tied to the Middle East conflict through higher energy prices, which could heavily weigh on output and trade unless they are brief,” the report said.
“Because the Gulf region is a major exporter of both energy and fertilizers, a prolonged supply disruption could reverberate through food systems, worsening the impact of existing export restrictions,” it added.
The WTO has found it difficult to retain its relevance during Trump’s second term, as the US president has imposed a wave of tariffs irrespective of the organization’s rules, and rival economies have abandoned their own commitments by signing separate deals with Washington.
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