"Hungary's election begins with massive opposing rallies drawing tens of thousands"

Tens of thousands of people are anticipated to attend competing events organized by Viktor Orbán’s governing party and his primary challenger as political campaigns begin for next year’s elections, reflecting the country’s deeply divided atmosphere.

Thursday marks the anniversary of Hungary’s 1956 revolt against Soviet control, an event central to the far-right Fidesz party’s ideology. Once staunchly opposed to Soviet influence, the party has grown more favorable toward Russia under Orbán’s leadership.

Fidesz, in power since 2010, has stated it anticipates record attendance at this year’s Budapest commemoration, with Orbán scheduled to speak outside parliament. Originally promoted as a peace demonstration, the event suffered a setback after news emerged that a previously suggested meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, seen as a diplomatic victory for Orbán, would not occur.

As the ruling party’s procession moves through the city, it will pass another gathering led by Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member who has emerged as Orbán’s chief rival amid frustration over rising prices and political controversies.

With six months until the April elections, Magyar’s party, Tisza, is polling evenly with Fidesz. Independent surveys indicate the opposition holds a slight edge, while government-aligned analysts predict the opposite result.

“If elections were held this Sunday, Fidesz would secure 27% of the vote, while Tisza would receive 37%,” said Balázs Böcskei, a political analyst and head of the independent IDEA Institute, referencing recent polling data. He noted Tisza’s advantage appears stable in monthly surveys.

A key consideration is that a quarter of voters remain undecided or reluctant to disclose preferences. Similar uncertainty is believed to have shifted the 2022 election in Orbán’s favor despite earlier opposition leads in polls.

Both Fidesz and Tisza aim to attract larger crowds on Thursday, with Orbán seeking to energize supporters and sway undecided voters.

Magyar, 43, a former lawyer who publicly distanced himself from Fidesz in early 2024, has accused the party of systematic misconduct, alleging it uses public resources to transport supporters to events with offers of free meals and incentives. His party also claims authorities pressured transportation firms not to lease vehicles to opposition groups. “We must demonstrate we won’t yield to intimidation or deception,” Magyar stated online.

Fidesz representative Tamás Menczer dismissed the allegations, labeling reports of coercion as misinformation.

Orbán, in response, has referred to Magyar’s rally as a “Brussels war march.” Some Fidesz-affiliated outlets have also alleged, without presenting proof...