Since users of the prominent prediction market Polymarket have been able to bet on war outcomes, concerns have arisen that those placing wagers on bomb strikes might possess non‑public information about military actions. Reports of possible insider trading on war‑related markets have circulated, though the identity of those believed to be making these bets has remained obscure.
In February, Israeli authorities charged two individuals with security offences, bribery and obstruction of justice, asserting that they used classified data to bet on the timing of military operations on Polymarket.
The allegations in the indictment follow a January report by CuriosityNews, which uncovered a group of jointly funded Polymarket accounts that bet on strikes involving Iran and Israel between June 2025 and January 2026, earning roughly $156,000 according to publicly available blockchain data.
Since that disclosure, there have been increasing accounts of suspected insider trading on prediction markets—where participants stake crypto wallets—especially concerning the Iran conflict, with dubious profiles amassing millions in profits.
After local journalists persuaded the court to narrow a gag order, Tel Aviv court filings now allege more about the people prosecutors claim profited by betting on lethal strikes and how they obtained their information.
The documents identify one suspect as Omer Ziv, 30, of Tel Aviv. Social media profiles matching the indictment and blockchain data—showing photos, birth date and interests—state that Ziv worked as an affiliate marketing manager in the online gambling sector for eight years, per his LinkedIn page. His activity indicates he is an avid prediction‑market participant; he frequently replied to Kalshi announcements and was recommended by other users for a chief‑of‑staff role at the firm. Days before his arrest, a Kalshi executive launched new markets letting traders bet on whether crypto prices would rise or fall within 15 minutes. Ziv commented asking when they might be reduced to one‑minute intervals—“asking for a degen friend.” (“Degen” is internet slang for someone who engages in high‑risk, speculative trading.) The account has been inactive since.
It remains unclear whether the transactions tied to Ziv’s accounts constitute illegal conduct, as prosecutors allege.
The second defendant is a major in the Israeli air force reserves; his identity, including details of his position, will stay undisclosed on national‑security grounds, the judge ruled.
Prosecutors have summoned 45 witnesses to testify. Both defendants have been ordered to remain in custody until the trial concludes.
Apart from the indictment and the gag‑order ruling, no further court documents have been released, as is typical for classified trials, according to experts in Israeli law speaking to CuriosityNews.
Read next
Tokyo tourist hotspot outlaws short-term rentals amid complaint surge
Shinjuku Ward, Tokyo, has moved to ban short-term rental accommodations in residential areas and near schools and important cultural sites, following a slew of complaints about visitor behaviour. The decision, to be enacted through a local ordinance, marks the latest sign that Japan’s patience with mass tourism is
Canada implements retaliatory US tariffs as trade dispute intensifies
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion worth of American imports took effect at 12.01am on Tuesday, ranging from 15% to 50% and applying to steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. The measures, a response to the United States’ 50% tariff on $20 billion
Prosecutor general resigns amid political turmoil in Kyiv during Ukraine war
Ukraine’s prosecutor general Ruslan Kravchenko resigned amid corruption accusations after anti-graft officers searched his offices at the weekend. He called the allegations “completely unsubstantiated” and denied wrongdoing. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABu) and Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (Sapo) announced Saturday they uncovered a money-laundering