Nobel Peace Prize committee probes unusual betting activity on winner

Norwegian authorities overseeing the Nobel Peace Prize are looking into unusual online betting activity for this year’s winner, raising concerns about a potential breach in the typically confidential selection process.

Shortly after midnight on Thursday, Norwegian time, a sharp increase in bets for Venezuelan opposition figure Maria Corina Machado appeared on the gambling platform Polymarket, according to the site’s data.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, stated, “It appears someone with unauthorized access may have tried to profit from inside information.”

Later that day, Machado was named the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate for her pro-democracy efforts in Venezuela, becoming the first Venezuelan to receive the honor. She was notified of the decision at 10:50 a.m. Norwegian time.

However, Norwegian outlets Aftenposten and Finansavisen later identified irregular patterns in online betting markets before the announcement.

Before Thursday, economist Yulia Navalnaya, widow of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, had been the leading contender on Polymarket.

The platform has gained traction in recent years for political wagering, with most activity centered on U.S. politics. Many less mainstream bets rely on speculation, influencing payout odds.

Early Thursday, Machado’s odds stood at just 3.75%, behind Navalnaya and Donald Trump. But within two hours, they skyrocketed to 72.8%, indicating a sudden influx of bets in her favor.

Finansavisen reported that one user won over $65,000 by betting on Machado, while another winning account was created the same day the wager was placed.

Jørgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the Nobel committee, noted the group’s long track record of maintaining secrecy in decisions. Harpviken said it was “too soon to confirm” whether information had been leaked but indicated an inquiry was likely.