A potential shift in France's political landscape could have significant implications for climate policy, according to experts. The upcoming French parliamentary elections may see a rise of far-right parties, which historically prioritize other issues over environmental concerns.
Emmanuel Macron called the second round of elections after the National Rally (RN) made notable gains in European elections earlier this month. If Marine Le Pen's party secures a majority, it could mark a major change for climate policy in France and potentially across Europe.
The National Rally has expressed intentions to alter current environmental policies if they come into power. The party opposes what it perceives as "punitive ecology" and plans to challenge existing regulations on vehicles, renewable energy projects, emissions zones, and building efficiency standards.
Christophe Cassou from the French National Centre for Scientific Research expressed concerns about potential regressions in climate policy if RN becomes dominant. He noted that France is a significant contributor of greenhouse gases within the EU, despite per capita lower emission rates due to its substantial nuclear energy usage.
Macron's government faced challenges addressing environmental issues during his tenure, as evident from the 2018 yellow vest protests triggered by fuel price hikes and a wealth tax reform. Political scientists point out that while some may attribute far-right support to rising climate change costs, other factors like migration and inflation are more influential in voters' decisions.
If RN takes power, it will need to balance conflicting desires such as reducing renewable energy investment while maintaining industry competitentiality and promoting national sovereignty alongside tax cuts for fossil fuel imports – areas where France currently depends on foreign sources.
Despite the far-right's apparent disregard for climate issues, experts suggest that they may eventually have to address it in some capacity due to conflicting policy demands and economic pressures. A potential rise of RN could also slow down EU-level climate action, which France has been proactive in advocating for clean technologies and green manufacturing initiatives.
The possibility of far-right dominance in the French elections raises concerns about its impact on global climate diplomacy and science denialism similar to what occurred under former US President Donald Trump. Scientists warn that if such a scenario unfolds, public discussions may become more challenging due to increasing skepticism towards scientific facts and data.
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