"Risks of centrist economics in a divided world"

Navigating the economic landscape as a centrist thinker is challenging in today’s politically charged environment, where every viewpoint is quickly categorized into rigid ideological positions. A sentiment often linked to Leon Trotsky applies here—centrist economists may avoid conflict, but conflict finds them regardless.

Take, for example, my 2016 book *The Curse of Cash*, which examined the evolution of money over time. Upon its release, I received over 20 threats. Some came from individuals involved in illicit activities or firearms ownership, angered by the suggestion to eliminate large-denomination bills. Others accused me of disloyalty for advocating financial oversight, reflecting the polarized reactions to regulatory ideas.

The hostility was less concerning than the misunderstanding of another controversy: the 2013 dispute surrounding my collaboration with Carmen Reinhart. It began when three economists from the University of Massachusetts Amherst claimed our brief 2010 paper *Growth in a Time of Debt* contained inaccuracies that allegedly misled policymakers in Europe and the U.S., contributing to post-financial crisis austerity measures. This criticism fueled a misleading narrative that still circulates.

In truth, the initial draft had only one error, which was corrected in the final 2012 journal version—a normal part of refining research. Both versions reached the same broad conclusion: economies with very high public debt often experience slower long-term growth. However, this does not suggest deficits harm immediate output any more than buying something on credit means instant regret—it simply acknowledges future economic constraints.

Our study categorized countries by debt levels relative to GDP, with the 90% marker serving as a reference point, not a strict tipping point. As we emphasized, surpassing that level doesn’t cause abrupt collapse, just as slightly exceeding speed limits doesn’t guarantee accidents.

Sound economic reasoning supports why excessive debt can hinder growth. High public borrowing may displace private investment, while the associated taxes can distort markets. Additionally, substantial debt limits a government’s ability to address crises or fund productivity-boosting projects.