EU's capacity to repel invasion still uncertain, official report reveals

The EU's capacity to respond to a foreign invasion by 2030 remains uncertain owing to ongoing reliance on the United States and fragmented national defence systems, according to a report from its official auditor.

The European Court of Auditors (ECA) stated that the EU was considerably better prepared than before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but achieving its objective of defence readiness by the end of the decade would be difficult.

"Achieving defence preparedness in the EU by 2030 remains challenging," said Marek Opioła, an ECA member who led the review of the EU's defence policy published on Thursday. "There are still major difficulties such as fragmented national systems or industrial bottlenecks. We also still rely on the United States."

Speaking to CuriosityNews, he stressed the EU could "still make major progress" if it sharply increased defence spending and rapidly expanded ammunition production.

Between 2020 and 2025, EU member states increased defence spending by 79%, a response to the Russian threat and a belated effort to meet Nato spending targets. In November 2024, the EU met its pledge of providing 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine — eight months behind schedule.

The EU set the goal of defence readiness by 2030 last year, after intelligence services warned that Russia could be ready to wage a large-scale war in Europe around that time.

The EU's financial watchdog said major difficulties had to be overcome to reach this target, defined by a senior auditor as "having strategic autonomy" and "the ability to independently sustain high-intensity warfare". The senior auditor said the EU was better prepared than in 2019, when a similar review was conducted, but warned that fragmented national defence industries and "insufficient cooperation" between EU governments contributed to a risk of duplication in spending or persistent gaps in military capabilities.

Emblematic of the dysfunction — although not mentioned in the report — is France and Germany's decision to abandon a €100bn project to build a joint fighter jet, because the lead companies were unable to resolve disputes over leadership and control.

The report highlighted a possible tension between short-term battlefield needs and a "Buy European" policy that aims to reduce dependencies on foreign suppliers. Between February 2022 and June 2023, 78% of EU governments' defence acquisitions were sourced outside the bloc, with the US alone representing 63%, according to one study cited by the ECA.

The senior auditor said purchases from the US increased after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine "which was understandable because the EU needed to find capabilities that were available quickly". The official added that "early signs of improvement in that situation" were visible, although the auditors did not have complete data to draw conclusions.

The EU has set requirements that common defence spending should benefit domestic defence industries or those of closely-associated countries, such as Ukraine and Norway. But some flexibilities have been allowed where Europe is unable to produce critical supplies in time.

After a deadly summer of Russian missile and drone attacks, this week Ukraine asked for an exemption from Buy European procurement rules to acquire US-made Patriot interceptors using the EU's €90bn support loan. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that Ukraine had requested funding "worth several billion euros" for air defences, including Patriot air-defence systems. A European Commission spokesperson said Ukraine's request for Patriot interceptor missiles "would require a derogation" from rules requiring majority European content in military purchases under the loan. "The final say is with the member states and of course our hope would be that this would soon be granted," the spokesperson said.