Far-right AfD wins major German state election but likely short of full majority

The populist far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland has emerged as the winner in a state election in Germany, exit polls have projected, but it remains unclear whether it will be able to form a government and become the first far-right party to gain power at regional or parliament level since the second world war.

Initial exit polls showed the party to have secured 44.5% of the vote, decisively ahead of the Christian Democrats of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, in a contest that was being followed across the world.

The CDU was trailing on 18.5% and the far-left Die Linke was third with 9.5%, with the Social Democrats on 8% and the Greens on 9%. The smaller BSW reached the 5% hurdle needed to re-enter parliament, against expectations.

Votes are still being counted, but it appeared initially that the AfD might have failed to secure an absolute majority, the condition it has said is central to it taking power, as it refuses to govern with another party.

Participation was at a record high of 76.5%. About 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in the east-central state of 2.1 million residents. Polling booths opened at 8am local time and closed at 6pm, when exit polls delivered the first indication that the AfD had secured enough votes for an absolute majority, enabling it to govern the state.

This marks the first time the party has won a state government, and the first time since the second world war that a rightwing extremist party has gained power at regional state or parliament level in Germany. Final polls before the vote had shown the AfD to have around 40-41% of support.

Siegmund had consistently said he would refuse to take over as state premier unless his party gained an absolute majority, saying this was the only way it could effectively enact change in Germany.

The number of undecided voters in advance of the vote was much lower than at previous elections. In a reflection of the significance of the vote, voter participation hit 54% by 2pm, compared with 27% at the same time for the equivalent vote five years ago, according to the state election commissioner.

The small state has been governed since 2021 by Merz's conservative CDU, together with two smaller parties. The CDU and all other mainstream parties have refused to collude with the AfD in a government, in what is referred to as a Brandmauer, or firewall. The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has been classed as "rightwing extremist" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency.

Siegmund, a 35-year-old former fragrance salesman with a large following on TikTok, was yet to comment. At a final rally on Saturday, he told supporters: "No matter the outcome of tomorrow's election, we have already made history."

The Saxony-Anhalt election had been seen as the biggest test yet for Merz, who is unpopular, along with his government, a coalition with the SPD, having failed in his promises so far to reset Germany's struggling economy or stop the rise of the AfD. Irregular immigration has reduced since Merz has been in office, but not to the extent that it has appeased the average voter. In national polls, the CDU has also been overtaken by the AfD.

If the AfD manages to form a government, Siegmund has promised to immediately start a remigration and deportation offensive, ban rainbow flags in schools, and halt the building of new windfarms. He wants to change the slogan of the state from "Think Modern" to "Think German", and to reintroduce the singing of the German national anthem in schools.

Siegmund also sought to capitalise on a mood of "ostagie" and to tap into discontent among east Germans. He has made repeated references to a rise in foreigner-related crime, even as the crime rate has fallen dramatically.

Siegmund turned up to vote on Sunday morning with his wife, riding an East German-era moped in the party colours. He voiced his optimism that the party would achieve "45%, and some", and said he wanted to "build bridges".

Tensions before the election were high, with a considerable police presence and a number of demonstrations planned. Thousands of opponents of the AfD gathered in Magdeburg on Saturday for a "festival of democracy". On Saturday evening, a message beamed on to the facade of Magdeburg Cathedral read: "We do not abandon what we love. True love of the homeland is not the AfD."

The bishop of Magdeburg, Gerhard Feige, warned against forces "that want to sow discord, stoke mistrust and fear". He warned that a democracy has the potential to abolish itself. "Not everyone who votes or is elected democratically is a democrat," he said.

The German Economic Institute has warned of far-reaching consequences for the German economy. It said the AfD's immigration policy would be "calamitous" for the state, which has an ageing, dwindling population and is heavily dependent on foreign workers.

Critics have also warned that an AfD-run state, due to the Kremlin-friendly stance of the party, could leak sensitive information to Russia. The AfD has dismissed such claims, saying it would seek to reform the domestic intelligence service, calling it biased.