Iran's limited military options as it seeks retaliation against US‑Israeli strike

In the stark arithmetic of conflict, Iran must now rely on chance. The opening moments of the combined U.S.–Israeli strike proved disastrous for Tehran’s leadership: the supreme commander, Ali Khamenei, is thought to have been killed together with the defence minister, the chief of the armed forces and the head of the Revolutionary Guard.

Iran had already sensed that its security network was breached during the twelve‑day war of June 2025, when Israel eliminated a series of senior officers.

During the street unrest of January, Khamenei was relocated to a protected site for his own safety, but on Saturday he felt secure enough to convene a security briefing at his Tehran compound.

U.S. intelligence services intercepted the meeting’s schedule beforehand and relayed the information to Israel.

A small squadron of Israeli jets loitered for roughly two hours before pounding the site with about thirty long‑range missiles.

Although Khamenei had drafted a succession plan, listing possible heirs for himself and for many top military and political figures—requiring nominations up to four tiers down—the likely outcome is a fragmented and uncoordinated Iranian military reaction after such a destabilising loss of command.

U.S. and Israeli bombardments continue at a rapid tempo.

Early accounts indicated that the United States launched around 900 strikes in the first twelve hours, while Israel reported roughly 1,200 attacks in the first twenty‑four hours.

“The United States and Israel are focused on dismantling Iran’s offensive capacity and its leadership,” said Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute.

“The issue is whether the Iranian regime can endure that pressure and inflict sufficient regional damage to force a halt to the campaign.”

Iran’s options for retaliation are narrow.

Its current approach leans on Shahed drones and high‑speed ballistic missiles, aiming to strike Israel, U.S. bases and regional states where they are stationed.

On Sunday, Oman—once a mediator in the stalled nuclear talks with Washington—became the sixth Arab nation hit when two drones assaulted the Duqm naval facility.

The scale of Iran’s counter‑strikes has been considerable, yet most have proved only marginally effective and are expected to lose potency.

The United Arab Emirates reported three fatalities after Iran fired 165 missiles and 541 drones at its territory, according to its defence ministry; of the drones, 35 penetrated defenses and caused material damage, while the missiles failed to hit.

Tehran appears to be betting that eventually a missile or drone will breach defenses and inflict enough harm to make the United States or Israel reconsider, or that it possesses sufficient ordnance to wear down regional air‑defence systems.

The strategy mirrors lessons drawn from Ukraine, where layered salvos of decoys, drones and other assets were employed.