Leipzig Airport attack aftermath sparks rising tensions in Germany over Russia policy

Even before the German government attributed a drone attack at Leipzig airport to Russia this week, the topic of German ties to Moscow was high on the political agenda.

But the timing of the Leipzig announcement, which was unsurprising yet explosive, came days before a key regional vote and exposed how polarised German politics is on the issue.

Leading the polls nationally and in Saxony-Anhalt, which votes this weekend, is the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The party has repeatedly called for closer ties with the Kremlin and for cheap Russian oil and gas to flow to Germany again, despite Moscow's ongoing war in Ukraine.

Germany is on edge. Interior minister Alexander Dobrindt had warned that Berlin faced a growing threat of hybrid warfare, and on Wednesday morning, police were investigating a second sabotage assault on the electricity grid within 24 hours.

An explosion at Augsburg railway station in the early hours of Wednesday also initially appeared to fit the same pattern, highlighting the country's continued nervousness about attacks on its infrastructure.

Investigations into all these incidents and others are ongoing, even as authorities warned against drawing premature conclusions.

Moscow has denied involvement and accused Berlin of trying to divert attention from its own domestic problems, including the rise of the far right and the state's failure to protect its own infrastructure.

The resulting uncertainty and anxiety appear to benefit the AfD. Its foreign policy spokesperson, Markus Frohnmaier, accused the government of categorising incidents of sabotage "according to political expediency".

While it had "escalated the situation against Russia within days," he said, the 2022 attack on the Nord Stream pipeline, for which Ukrainian operatives are suspected of being responsible, had so far remained without consequence. Two Ukrainian nationals named by Germany as suspects have been arrested, with one last year extradited from Italy and the other currently in Croatia.

"This is not a consistent security policy, but rather a double standard in foreign policy," Frohnmaier claimed, adding he was convinced the government would use the Leipzig incident "as justification for even more support for Ukraine and even deeper involvement of Germany in this war."

The AfD, which has called for talks with Moscow, ending sanctions against Russia, and slashing support for Ukraine, has urged the government to release its proof of Russia's involvement, saying the evidence so far is lacking.

Wary of escalating a conflict with Moscow, the government of Friedrich Merz waited days before making its declaration. Foreign minister Johann Wadephul stated: "We are not at war, but we are a daily target of hybrid warfare."

Details released on Wednesday of two Russian suspects identified as having been involved in the Leipzig incident are unlikely to satisfy the AfD's complaints or those of the far-left party Die Linke.

Die Linke's leading MP, Dietmar Bartsch, said on Wednesday that the suspicions of Russian involvement did not justify the government's decision to shut down the Russian consulate in Bonn and a Russian cultural centre in Berlin and would not make Germany safer. On the contrary, they increased the risk of a "major war" drawing closer, he said.

With the AfD on around 42% in Saxony-Anhalt and possibly poised to form the first far-right-led administration since the second world war, Merz's Christlich Demokratische Union (CDU), on around 22%, is under intense pressure.

Within Merz's own party, there have been growing calls for him to toughen his stance against Moscow and frustration that it has taken so long. According to the CDU's Roderich Kiesewetter, members of his Christian Democrats and his current coalition partner, the Social Democrats, along with generations of diplomats, have remained caught up in the long-standing notion that Russia could be tamed by trade and energy pipelines.

The former soldier and foreign policy expert told broadcaster InfoRadio that Germany "must give up its caution with regard to Russian state terrorism on German soil, as well as this romantic notion of Russia as a great cultural nation. Russia cares not a damn about this caution, but rather sees it as an invitation to keep escalating."

He criticised Merz's recent public reference to Russia as a great cultural nation, "because great cultural nations do not subject their neighbouring states to war, violence and child abductions." He said it was time for Merz to name the current Russian regime for what it was.

Konstantin von Notz, foreign policy expert for the Greens, praised the government's "significantly clear language" over Moscow's behaviour, even as he described it as "long overdue".

The extent to which voters in Saxony-Anhalt fear how further deterioration of relations with Moscow could affect them may yet be felt at the ballot box.