Putin to Visit China for Extended Talks Amid Ukraine War Discussions
Russian President Vladimir Putin will arrive in China this weekend for what officials describe as an "unprecedented" trip to his country's most significant partner, occurring at a crucial stage in discussions regarding Ukraine.
The visit, expected to last nearly a week—an unusually long stay for Putin—will include his attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, meetings with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and participation in Beijing’s Victory Day parade commemorating 80 years since Japan’s defeat in World War II. Putin will be a featured guest alongside North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and leaders from Iran and Cuba.
Analysts suggest that aligning their positions on the Ukraine conflict, particularly as the U.S. pushes for an end to hostilities, will be a key focus for Putin and Xi.
"This is an important moment for them to discuss the direction of the war and the likelihood of it concluding soon," said Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
Gabuev noted that Moscow seeks clarity on whether China will continue offering support and how Beijing might react if pressured by the U.S. to influence Russia’s stance. "The two leaders must ensure their strategies align. The war has become a cornerstone of their relationship," he added.
China has become a vital economic partner for Russia since the war began, with Kyiv increasingly critical of what it claims is Beijing’s direct reinforcement of Moscow’s military campaign. Bilateral trade surged to over $240 billion last year—almost double pre-2022 invasion levels. China now leads as the top buyer of Russian oil and coal and is poised to overtake Europe as Moscow’s primary natural gas market.
Even if hostilities cease, Gabuev said, Russia’s reliance on China is unlikely to diminish. "Russia needs assurance that China will remain a long-term energy buyer," he explained.
Despite record trade volumes in early 2024, a recent decline in Russian oil exports to China has prompted concerns, something Putin is expected to address during the trip. Discussions may include the long-discussed Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline and potential expansions to existing oil infrastructure.
Military cooperation is another likely topic, with Western governments wary of deepening ties between Beijing and Moscow. While China has not supplied direct military aid, U.S. reports indicate it provides about 70% of Russia’s machine tools and 90% of its semiconductors for military production. In exchange, China is believed to receive advanced defense technology assistance.
Though Beijing presents itself as a neutral mediator in the Ukraine conflict, relations with Russia have strengthened since the war began. Recently, Moscow proposed including China as a potential security guarantor for Ukraine, reviving an earlier suggestion.
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