As U.S. naval vessels armed with missiles and military personnel advanced toward Venezuela’s coast this week, allies of the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, claimed a foreign-backed scheme for an intervention similar to Iraq’s was underway.
“No one will take our land!” Maduro declared, urging citizens to join his armed civilian force to resist the alleged external threat.
Supporters of Donald Trump posted aggressive messages, telling Maduro his rule was nearing its end. “Your time is almost up,” said Michael Flynn, Trump’s former security advisor, suggesting Maduro should leave for Moscow.
Carlos Gimenez, a U.S. lawmaker aligned with Trump, praised the “unprecedented military presence near Venezuela” and warned Maduro his era was over.
The naval movements and hostile statements might imply Latin America is facing its most significant foreign military escalation since the 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama to remove its leader, Manuel Noriega. Cuba’s government accused the U.S. of trying to turn the Caribbean into a conflict zone.
However, analysts and former U.S. officials doubt Venezuela is about to experience a full-scale invasion.
“This is mostly posturing from both sides,” said Christopher Sabatini, a Latin America expert at Chatham House.
“An invasion with 4,500 troops is impossible in a country with difficult terrain and multiple cities,” Sabatini added, referring to the U.S. forces deployed as part of a seaborne military group.
James Story, the top U.S. diplomat for Venezuela from 2018 to 2023, agreed, calling the mobilization more about intimidation than actual conflict.
Story noted that many Venezuelans, angered by Maduro’s economic mismanagement and alleged election fraud, might not oppose foreign intervention—but an attack seemed unlikely. “These ships don’t indicate imminent military action,” he said, citing insufficient deployed assets for a major assault.
“Could they launch missiles at Fuerte Tiuna [Maduro’s suspected residence]? Yes, but they wouldn’t need such an overt display for that. I don’t think an invasion is coming,” Story added, noting Trump’s general reluctance toward military interventions.
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