Was it a decisive “no” or a tentative “yes”? What swayed the Icelandic referendum

It was always going to be a close race. Yet the numbers revealed how split Icelandic opinion remained on whether to restart talks with the European Union.

After an overnight count that kept everyone on edge, the well‑funded “no” camp celebrated on Sunday when broadcaster RÚV announced it had secured about 52.8% of the vote. With a population of barely 400,000, the margin was razor‑thin.

Critics labeled the “no” side as fear‑mongering and likened its tactics to those used by Brexit campaigners in the UK’s 2016 referendum. By portraying fishing and farming—cornerstones of Icelandic identity—as endangered by EU membership, the “no” team won over many voters. The results showed a stark divide: the capital region leaned toward “yes,” while much of the largely rural interior favored “no,” where a sense that national identity might be eroded persisted.

Perhaps the wording of the ballot itself also swayed the outcome. Voters were asked, “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?” A subsequent referendum would follow any agreement. It is worth noting that Iceland already belongs to the European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen travel zone.

Consequently, a “yes” vote would amount to a tentative “yes, maybe,” whereas a “no” vote offered a clear, decisive stance. The “yes, maybe” camp’s slogan, “Já til að sjá” (“yes to see”), seemed vague compared with the confident claims of the “no” side. The “no” campaign warned that the EU would become a “new superpower” over Iceland and could turn the nation into a “quota‑free fishing village,” allowing foreign firms to invest in the highly prized fishing industry and place fishing rights and profits in external hands.

At a “yes” gathering in the Reykjavík Art Museum, supporter Þòrir Snoor observed, “The no side has done a lot of fearmongering and done it very well.” Many of his peers believed the euro could curb the country’s high inflation and interest rates, yet the 25‑year‑old admitted, “A lot of my friends are scared of the European Union.”

Wearing a blue EU cap, Snædis Inga Rúnarsdóttir, 30, said the “no” campaign had been louder and better financed. She said she would have to accept a possible “no” victory but condemned a wave of misinformation surrounding the referendum.