Keir Starmer is confronting an ultimatum from his own party: alter course or risk a leadership contest within months after the Greens dealt Labour a stunning defeat in the Gorton and Denton by‑election.
Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green councillor, overturned a 13,000‑vote Labour majority from the general election to become the party’s fifth MP on Friday. Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin finished second, just ahead of Labour’s candidate, Angeliki Stogia.
The magnitude of the loss in a constituency that had elected Labour MPs for almost a century, and where Starmer’s party had still expected to win on polling day, sent his ministers and MPs into renewed dismay only weeks after he repelled a challenge to his leadership.
Although only a few backbenchers publicly called for Starmer’s departure after the result, even loyal ministers noted that the Greens’ surge under Zack Polanski signalled a drift of Labour voters from its left flank.
In a pointed remark, Angela Rayner, former deputy prime minister and a prominent voice on Labour’s left, described the outcome as “a wake‑up call”.
Starmer, however, seemed inclined to brush off the pressure, using a television clip and a letter to MPs to label the Greens as an “extreme” left‑wing counterpart to Reform UK, arguing they could not repeat their success in a general election.
If his fortunes do not improve markedly, Starmer could confront a leadership challenge after the May elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and English councils, where Labour is currently forecast to perform poorly.
A new poll released on Friday suggested that in Scotland Labour might fall to fourth place for the first time, trailing not only the SNP and Reform but also the Scottish Greens.
“I think it speeds everything up,” said one MP from the party’s soft left about the Gorton and Denton result. “I thought we could maybe hold on for another year after May, but not now. I don’t see anything that can rescue him.”
Ministers usually aligned with the prime minister expressed a similarly bleak view. “The result is catastrophically bad for us. The worst possible,” one remarked. “It will inevitably heighten calls for Keir to shift toward the progressive wing, but the demand will be for immediate action – not in a few months or weeks.”
Starmer’s sense of humiliation is amplified by the fact that Downing Street prevented Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, from standing in the by‑election, with many party members believing his local popularity would have saved the seat.
The two men met in Manchester this week for a one‑on‑one discussion, which was described as initially uneasy but ultimately constructive as they cleared the air.
Burnham has not ruled out another attempt to return to parliament. “With all the chaos and turmoil, who knows what might happen. It would be foolish to say he would never,” an ally said.
For the Greens, the victory marked a historic breakthrough.
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