More than 150,000 people could still fall into poverty due to the government’s welfare reforms, despite recent adjustments aimed at protecting existing benefit recipients, according to an official assessment.
The measures will be presented before a parliamentary vote on Tuesday, with around 50 opposition MPs expected to oppose them.
The revised impact assessment, conducted after concessions were made to address concerns raised by over 120 opposition MPs, found a minimal effect on child poverty, which had been a major issue in the initial proposal. However, it estimated that an additional 150,000 individuals could face relative poverty by 2030 due to changes affecting future claimants. Earlier projections had suggested 250,000 people would be affected.
Liz Kendall, the minister responsible, will outline the changes to lawmakers later. Several key critics, including Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier, have been persuaded by assurances that current disability claimants will not face reductions and that health-related benefits will rise with inflation.
The government maintains that the reforms are necessary to overhaul the welfare system and control costs, though recent concessions will require an additional £3 billion in funding.
A spokesperson for the opposition leader commented, “The current welfare system is deeply flawed, leaving millions without proper support, opportunities, or dignity. For too long, necessary changes have been delayed. The government can no longer ignore a system that consistently fails people, which is why action is needed.”
The spokesperson acknowledged that poverty projections involve uncertainty and do not account for increased funding in health and social services. “An extra £1 billion per year will be invested to help those with long-term health conditions find employment and achieve financial independence,” they added.
When questioned about potential legal concerns over differing treatment for future claimants, the spokesperson said, “It’s not uncommon for systems to have varying levels of support. We are fully confident these measures are lawful.”
Despite the adjustments, some lawmakers, including former government official Vicky Foxcroft, remain opposed. Discussions with MPs continue ahead of the vote.
The opposition leader’s spokesperson noted, “There is wide agreement that reforms are needed, and as expected, discussions are ongoing.”
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